High prices and uncertain policies have made the Federal Reserve favored -- this year's urea winter storage is expected to be better than last year
2018-06-18 21:02:20
In the second half of the year, especially after entering September and October, the winter storage problem of chemical fertilizers has always been a hot topic in the market and is highly concerned by manufacturers and distributors. So, what will happen to the winter storage of urea this year?
The price will remain at a high level As in last year, the urea winter storage price will remain at a high level this year, mainly due to four factors: First, the starting price is high. In the first half of this year, the urea market was very popular. In June and July, the price of urea in many regions hit record highs or close to the highest price in history. Although the prices of urea fell significantly in August and September, the current price is still not seen from the absolute price point. low. The second is the rise in urea production costs. Most of China’s urea production is based on coal, and coal prices have risen sharply last year and continue to rise this year. Compared with last year, most urea companies’ coal-to-plant prices rose by 100-250 yuan per ton. For more than 300 yuan, the production cost of urea per ton increases by at least 100 yuan and by more than 300 yuan. The third is the support of food prices. As the state purchases the minimum protection price for major grain varieties such as wheat and rice, it is difficult for grain prices to fall. This also supports the price of urea to some extent. Fourth, the impact of international urea prices. At present, international oil prices are continuously at historically high levels, and international natural gas prices are also rising steadily, making international ammonia and urea production costs remain high, and international urea prices are unlikely to drop significantly, forming a certain support for domestic urea prices.
Merchants repositioning Dongcun Since there are still some uncertainties in the current and next year's urea market, dealers will still be cautious about this year's urea winter storage, but they will be more active than last year. The main reason is that many dealers last year saw the country's policy intervention in the urea market more, but did not dare to excessively store urea in winter, and changed to a large number of other varieties such as winter storage compound fertilizer. However, this year's compound fertilizer market has been tepid, and dealers have not received much benefit from it. On the contrary, this year's urea market has seen a wave of big prices, and many operators have benefited from it. It is estimated that affected by this, some dealers may again favor the winter storage of urea.
The company's mentality is relatively stable Although the current attitude of dealers to urea storage is more cautious, urea production companies have also appeared in inventory, but the mentality of most manufacturers is relatively stable, mainly due to: First, manufacturers are not afraid of their own winter storage. From the situation of winter storage in recent years, the benefit of urea winter storage is still relatively good, and basically there is no major loss. Many manufacturers believe that dealers can be better at winter storage, but even if dealers do not have winter storage, their own winter storage does not matter. The second is that manufacturers have their own ability or have a way to winter storage. As urea prices continue to be high in recent years, many urea production companies have a better performance. Some enterprises can complete winter storage through their own funds, while others can use bank loans to solve the problem of winter storage funds. There are also some companies. Prepare to participate in the tendering of chemical fertilizers in government departments.
The Fed is favored by manufacturers. There are mainly three ways for the fertilizer winter storage: manufacturer storage, dealer buyout, and vendor storage. The risks and benefits of the first two methods are borne by one party. The risks are large, but the benefits that can be obtained are also large. The latter benefits and risks are jointly borne by the manufacturers and distributors, which can be described as “benefit sharing and risk sharingâ€. This year, due to uncertain factors in the urea market, especially policy uncertainties, while the winter storage prices are also relatively high, urea winter is stored in a certain degree of risk, many dealers are cautious about the urea winter storage, in this Under such circumstances, many dealers and manufacturers may prefer the Fed to reduce market risk.
In summary, it is expected that this year's urea storage will be better than last year.
At the onset of the winterization of chemical fertilizers, people in the industry put forward a proposal for this year's urea winter storage: that is, using the price method to determine the winter storage strategy. For manufacturers, if the sales price during the winter storage period exceeds a certain price level, then the sales will be dominated. If the sales price is lower than a certain price level, the storage will be the main one. If there is a price difference between the two, then the combination of sales and storage will be adopted. In this way, each company can determine a ratio of sales and storage according to its actual situation. For distributors, the price of urea in the winter storage period reaches a certain price level to start winter storage. The lower the price, the more the stock is stored. The specific value of this price is based on the company’s own capital situation, the market conditions in the region, and the season for the coming year. When the forecast price of urea sales is determined.
The price will remain at a high level As in last year, the urea winter storage price will remain at a high level this year, mainly due to four factors: First, the starting price is high. In the first half of this year, the urea market was very popular. In June and July, the price of urea in many regions hit record highs or close to the highest price in history. Although the prices of urea fell significantly in August and September, the current price is still not seen from the absolute price point. low. The second is the rise in urea production costs. Most of China’s urea production is based on coal, and coal prices have risen sharply last year and continue to rise this year. Compared with last year, most urea companies’ coal-to-plant prices rose by 100-250 yuan per ton. For more than 300 yuan, the production cost of urea per ton increases by at least 100 yuan and by more than 300 yuan. The third is the support of food prices. As the state purchases the minimum protection price for major grain varieties such as wheat and rice, it is difficult for grain prices to fall. This also supports the price of urea to some extent. Fourth, the impact of international urea prices. At present, international oil prices are continuously at historically high levels, and international natural gas prices are also rising steadily, making international ammonia and urea production costs remain high, and international urea prices are unlikely to drop significantly, forming a certain support for domestic urea prices.
Merchants repositioning Dongcun Since there are still some uncertainties in the current and next year's urea market, dealers will still be cautious about this year's urea winter storage, but they will be more active than last year. The main reason is that many dealers last year saw the country's policy intervention in the urea market more, but did not dare to excessively store urea in winter, and changed to a large number of other varieties such as winter storage compound fertilizer. However, this year's compound fertilizer market has been tepid, and dealers have not received much benefit from it. On the contrary, this year's urea market has seen a wave of big prices, and many operators have benefited from it. It is estimated that affected by this, some dealers may again favor the winter storage of urea.
The company's mentality is relatively stable Although the current attitude of dealers to urea storage is more cautious, urea production companies have also appeared in inventory, but the mentality of most manufacturers is relatively stable, mainly due to: First, manufacturers are not afraid of their own winter storage. From the situation of winter storage in recent years, the benefit of urea winter storage is still relatively good, and basically there is no major loss. Many manufacturers believe that dealers can be better at winter storage, but even if dealers do not have winter storage, their own winter storage does not matter. The second is that manufacturers have their own ability or have a way to winter storage. As urea prices continue to be high in recent years, many urea production companies have a better performance. Some enterprises can complete winter storage through their own funds, while others can use bank loans to solve the problem of winter storage funds. There are also some companies. Prepare to participate in the tendering of chemical fertilizers in government departments.
The Fed is favored by manufacturers. There are mainly three ways for the fertilizer winter storage: manufacturer storage, dealer buyout, and vendor storage. The risks and benefits of the first two methods are borne by one party. The risks are large, but the benefits that can be obtained are also large. The latter benefits and risks are jointly borne by the manufacturers and distributors, which can be described as “benefit sharing and risk sharingâ€. This year, due to uncertain factors in the urea market, especially policy uncertainties, while the winter storage prices are also relatively high, urea winter is stored in a certain degree of risk, many dealers are cautious about the urea winter storage, in this Under such circumstances, many dealers and manufacturers may prefer the Fed to reduce market risk.
In summary, it is expected that this year's urea storage will be better than last year.
At the onset of the winterization of chemical fertilizers, people in the industry put forward a proposal for this year's urea winter storage: that is, using the price method to determine the winter storage strategy. For manufacturers, if the sales price during the winter storage period exceeds a certain price level, then the sales will be dominated. If the sales price is lower than a certain price level, the storage will be the main one. If there is a price difference between the two, then the combination of sales and storage will be adopted. In this way, each company can determine a ratio of sales and storage according to its actual situation. For distributors, the price of urea in the winter storage period reaches a certain price level to start winter storage. The lower the price, the more the stock is stored. The specific value of this price is based on the company’s own capital situation, the market conditions in the region, and the season for the coming year. When the forecast price of urea sales is determined.
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