The National Development and Reform Commission even checks the maximum price increase of diesel oil prices

Retrospecting the “diesel shortage” that spread for more than two months, many people in the industry think that “diesel shortage” has come suddenly. How did the “diesel shortage” suddenly come? As the two major oil companies that control the vast majority of domestic oil refining capacity, why did they fail to alert the oil shortage? The State Council promulgated the "State 16" on November 20, 2010. It stipulates that oil companies must increase diesel production to protect market demand. The National Development and Reform Commission recently investigated and punished two batches of companies that violated the State's refined oil price regulations and sold diesel at high prices, including the regional sales subsidiaries of the two major oil companies.

Diesel "increase prices" was investigated

At the same time as the "diesel shortage" appeared, the wholesale price of diesel fuel continued to rise, creating a tense atmosphere in the market. Under the psychology of "buying up and down," social buyers continued to actively buy, which further pushed up prices until the wholesale price was higher than The highest retail price stipulated by the country has seen wholesale and retail reversed.

The two major oil companies controlled their sales due to tight market conditions and stopped the wholesales. They only guaranteed the supply of diesel to the system. The social gas stations were closed down due to the unprofitable sale of diesel fuel, while others took the risk of taking the risk. After buying diesel at high prices, they sold at a price higher than the national maximum retail price, earning high profits. Under such circumstances, anyone who owns resources can profit from it, and has created numerous illegal prices . The National Development and Reform Commission recently investigated and dealt with two batches of companies that violated the state's refined oil price regulations and sold diesel at high prices, including the regional sales subsidiaries of the two major oil companies.

To understand the above-mentioned logic of “diesel shortage”, we must also understand the current basic situation of the domestic refined oil market. From the current domestic market structure of refined oil, the two major oil companies have absolute control. However, in the retail market, except for the gas stations of the two major oil companies, there are nearly 60,000 private gas stations in the country, accounting for about 53% of the country's retail sales.

Two major oil companies said to maximize the supply of diesel

Just after the State Council requested the increase in the production of refined oil products, especially diesel, on November 17, the relevant person in charge of PetroChina and Sinopec, the two major oil groups, will make every effort to increase production and ensure supply. Sinopec expressed its utmost efforts to ensure the protection of market resources through five measures, including arranging crude oil processing capacity at full capacity. PetroChina said it has urgently deployed eight measures, including full-load production and active import, to ensure supply.

On November 19, as the largest domestic refined oil supplier, Sinopec also disclosed that it has basically stopped the export of diesel oil and given priority to guarantee domestic supply, and disclosed that Sinopec’s supply of social diesel resources will increase by 20.2% year-on-year in November, setting a record high. On November 22, CNPC also stated that after purchasing 200,000 tons of imported diesel in the first batch, it will continue to increase import protection supply. At present, the daily processing volume of crude oil of its refineries has reached the highest record in history.

Although the two major oil companies are trying their best to increase their supply of diesel , the regional sales companies of PetroChina and Sinopec have joined the ranks of illegal high-priced diesel sellers in the absence of rapid improvement. After the National Development and Reform Commission first investigated and dealt with illegal diesel sales by enterprises on November 23, Huang Wensheng, a spokesperson for the Sinopec Group, said on the night that related companies had been required to carry out immediate rectification, and that relevant actions and responsible persons should be seriously addressed.

International oil prices are the fuse

The price rise of oil companies does not want to rise. The above-mentioned sources stated that although the two major oil companies have absolute market control power, the direct trigger for wholesale price increases is the rise in international oil prices, “because of the rise in international crude oil prices. It will increase the domestic oil price increase forecast, and the recent devaluation of the dollar is the main reason for the rise in commodity prices, including crude oil.

Looking back at the changes in international oil prices in the past two months, we can see that in mid-November, both international oil prices and domestic diesel wholesale prices reached a two-month high. Although international oil prices have not shown a straight-up increase in the past two months, they have risen by 12.79%. In September, the international oil price was still under US$80. In October, the international oil price fluctuates in the range of 80-85 US dollars. In mid-November, the international oil price has approached 90 US dollars and hit a new high in two years. In the past two months, the domestic wholesale price of diesel oil has also been showing a rising trend, and reached its highest point in history in mid-November, and it has not shown a downward trend until the last two weeks.

Countermeasures

Increase Reserves to Realize "Light Storage and Sales Promotion"

The simplest reason for the tightness of diesel is that there has been a problem with supply and demand. The demand has increased substantially and the supply of diesel fuel has not kept pace. In order to cope with the oil shortage, the two major oil companies have also adopted new measures, such as increasing the daily processing volume of crude oil to the highest level in history, encouraging refineries to produce more diesel, and actively increasing the volume of diesel imports.

However, market analysts believe that regardless of the reasons for the growth in diesel demand, as the absolute supply of domestic refined oil market, the two major oil companies should find more reasons from their own.

Qi Fang, head of the Chamber of Commerce of the Hebei Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce, said that the current “diesel shortage” is rooted in the fact that the two major oil companies monopolize the domestic oil market.

It is understood that the two major state-owned oil companies currently control 47% of the oil resource exploitation rights in the upper reaches of the domestic oil industry. They control the production and processing rights of oil refining companies (including domestic local refineries) in the middle reaches of the oil industry. The right to import crude oil and refined oil is monotonous in the market, and oil resources are not properly and effectively configured in the market.

“The two major oil companies have maintained their market operations in a planned economy mode, and production has been out of line with the market. The plan has not kept pace with changes in the market and has caused an imbalance in supply and demand in the domestic oil market.” Qi Fang said.

Behind the "change" in the "plan" is also highlighted the lack of domestic oil reserves system. Compared with crude oil strategic reserves, refined oil reserves are still in their infancy and their storage capacity is relatively small. In May 2009, in the “Planning of Petrochemical Industry Revitalization Plan”, China first proposed the national oil product reserve strategy and proposed that the target reserve capacity in 2010 will reach 6 million tons. At present, domestic product oil reserves are still in the stage of commercial reserve of the two major oil companies and are still in the initial stage of construction.

Mao Jiaxiang, vice president of the Research Institute of Sinopec Economics and Technology, also stated that the current domestic refined oil reserves are very fragile, and that it is not possible to sell light reserves and the strategic reserve of refined oil has been slow.

Many insiders suggested that the government can set up a non-profit management agency to manage and manage the refined oil reserves and commission professional agencies to operate. When the oil prices are low, they can buy them and put them in Curry. When the shortage of oil is high, the government will Suppress market demand.

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