The construction vehicle is expected to come out of the trough under the boost of infrastructure investment
The heavy-duty card survey results in May showed that heavy truck sales in May continued to decline month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate may reach the level of -40%, which is the same as in April. From the survey respondents' feedback, almost all the respondents were expecting -40% to -50% year-on-year sales in May. Since the beginning of 2011, a series of industrial policy adjustments and the implementation of a number of new regulations have virtually restricted the progress of the medium and heavy truck market.
The current slump in engineering heavy trucks is largely affected by the investment in infrastructure construction and investment in real estate development. Guo Wen Securities analyst Wu Wenyi judged that the growth rate of investment in real estate development will largely determine the demand for engineering heavy trucks this year. Li Gang, deputy general manager of Shanghai Dajin Automobile Sales and Service Co., Ltd., said: "Since the infrastructure projects have been stagnant, many companies have closed down."
Since the second half of last year, due to severe real estate regulation, real estate development and investment growth has begun to decline significantly. So far, this regulation has not been significantly relaxed. It is understood that the growth of domestic real estate investment in the first quarter was 23.54%, which was lower than the 27.9% of the previous year.
According to industry insiders, the government-led investment has been stabilized due to the government's continued efforts to increase fiscal spending. Among them, from January to April, the central project investment was 40.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, and the decline was 5.6 percentage points smaller than that in the first three months. The investment growth of state-owned and state-controlled companies has also continued to rise since the beginning of this year, rising 8.8% from the beginning of the year. As of January-April, 9.5%, and the measures for steady growth of the government will increase in the second quarter.
Wu Wentao stated that “the current status of real estate development investment determines that the declining trend of engineering heavy trucks may continue in the next two months. However, with the relaxation of monetary policy in the second half of the year, real estate growth will be boosted, and it is expected that The growth rate of development will reach around 16%, coupled with the successive resumption of construction of some key projects and the rapid growth of water conservancy investment, and the annual infrastructure investment will also be expected to achieve low-speed growth. Driven by these factors, engineering heavy trucks will Half a year passed the low point, which led to the steady recovery of the overall sales volume of heavy trucks, making the trend of the market for the whole year showing a trend of low and high.
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