Refined oil prices or the seventh increase during the year
The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open on November 28, 2013. During the current round of valuation cycle, due to the strong rebound of Brent oil prices stimulated by factors such as geopolitical factors in the Middle East, market institutions generally forecast that the current round of refined oil prices is expected to increase. This is the seventh time since 2013 that domestic oil prices have risen.
The data released by the Xinhua News Agency’s oil price system on the 27th showed that the average price of a basket of crude oil on November 26 was 2.4%. Yesterday was the ninth working day of the current round of valuation cycle. The price adjustment window will be officially opened on the tenth working day.
"Despite the recent decline in international oil prices, the current rate of change in crude oil is still at a relatively high level, so the current round of oil price increase is basically no suspense, is expected to increase by about 100 yuan / ton, equivalent to 93 gasoline at 0.1 yuan / liter. "Liang Hong, an analyst at refined oil business, said.
At the end of March this year, China introduced a refined product oil pricing mechanism. According to the new mechanism, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be adjusted every 10 working days according to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. When the price adjustment rate is lower than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made, which will be added or offset during the next price adjustment.
Zhuo Chuang Information Oil analyst Zhang Bin said that since Nov. 14 the National Development and Reform Commission announced the price reduction of refined oil products, the differences in the oil prices in New York and London were significant. New York oil prices continued to decline due to persistently high crude oil inventories in the United States, and London Brun The special oil price rebounded sharply due to the turmoil in Libya and the tight supply of crude oil. The price adjustment of domestic refined oil mainly refers to the change in the price of Brent oil. Therefore, as Brent’s oil price continues to rise, the domestic market’s expectations for an increase in oil prices are growing.
According to data from Zhuochuang Information Monitoring, as of November 27, the average wholesale price of 93 gasoline in the main units of 30 provinces and cities in China was 9195 yuan/ton, which was 71 yuan/ton higher than that of November 14, and the wholesale of No. 0 diesel was The price was 8,223 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan/ton.
Zhang Bin said that in addition to price adjustment expectations, other factors have also contributed to the rise in oil prices in the domestic market. On the one hand, the tightness of diesel resources has not yet eased. On the other hand, due to the upgrading of oil products around the country, there is no willingness for sales units to sell at low prices.
Li Hong said that although the current round of oil prices is expected to increase, but overall, this year's domestic oil prices are still showing a downward trend. According to business statistics, so far, during the year, refined oil prices have experienced a total of 6 gains, 7 fall, 13 adjustments, of which gasoline has fallen by a total of 215 yuan/ton, and diesel has fallen by 230 yuan/ton. Even if this increase is honored, it cannot change the oil price. The overall downward trend.
Li Hong believes that the current consumption of finished oil products in the domestic market remains stable at a low level. However, on the supply side, due to the number of diesels entering the winter and the shortage of diesel in some regions, prices have generally increased. It is expected that after the price increase is honored, the prices of gasoline and diesel will follow.
Lu Weicai, an information analyst at Zhongyu, also stated that after the oil price increase is implemented, it will be difficult to ease the tight supply of domestic gasoline and diesel oil in the short term, and domestic refined oil prices may continue to surge. Internationally, it is expected that the agreement reached between Iran and the Western countries will not have an immediate impact on the supply of crude oil, and the US crude oil inventories will continue to increase. As a result, international crude oil prices will be under pressure and will bring some pressure on the domestic market.
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