· Warning: A large wave of robotic cars is approaching you

If Yahoo Autos sources are credible, then we are only a few weeks away from Ford's announcement that the company will build a self-driving car based on Google technology. This rumor echoes well with last week's news report that Alphabet, the holding company of all of Google's businesses, plans to expand the autonomous vehicle division into a complete company next year.
That will allow Google's self-driving cars to move away from the "project status" into a new category, indicating that the technology is getting closer to commercialization - Google's self-driving cars are now in the San Francisco Bay Area and Austin, Texas. Complete more than 1 million miles of road testing.
In fact, the rumored Ford and Google alliances are not the only news from autonomous cars this week. Electrek reports that Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently said he believes there will be a “Level 4” self-driving car in two years. So, what exactly is a 4-level self-driving car? The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) defines it as follows: “The entire journey is performed by the vehicle itself with all important safety functions, and the driver is not required to control the vehicle at all times. Since such vehicles are controlled from start to finish All functions (including parking functions), unmanned vehicles can also fall into this category. Simply put, after having a programmed destination, a level 4 autonomous car can be considered a robot taxi, think about it Uber car without a driver. If Google has a suitable manufacturer partner, such as Ford, then Google can almost enter the car sharing field overnight.
Given Tesla's Autopilot technology is one of the most comprehensive automatic driving systems available today, Musk's speech on this topic should not be taken lightly. At Tesla, 150 employees are developing advanced autonomous driving technology, and the company's Model S and Model X can achieve autonomous driving in some road conditions.
In addition, all Tesla cars – just like Google's self-driving cars – can communicate with each other and become smarter through a bee colony.
According to the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, Tesla's self-driving cars are close to Level 3: “In certain road conditions, the driver can completely release control of all important safety functions.” For example, these cars are not yet ready. It is good to drive automatically in urban road conditions.
In addition, Musk warned that even if the car technology is in place, the local regulations will not necessarily give a green light to the 4th-level self-driving car. He estimates that it will take 1-5 years from the time the car is ready to the legal road. Musk also made it clear that within two years, autonomous vehicles are unlikely to stir up traffic accidents like manual driving.
However, rather than understanding the meaning of the arrival of these robotic cars, predicting the exact time of their arrival (some prophets have made such stupid attempts) may not be as important. Think about it, in 2015, US car sales will approach or reach new records. The ever-improving economy, bottoming oil prices, continued low interest rates and the largest average age in history have formed the perfect formula for consumers to rush to dealers to buy new cars. However, at an average price of more than $33,500, these new cars will not be cheap, which has nothing to do with the trend of oil prices in the next few years.
Careful readers have arrived one step ahead, and they see this article mentioning some kind of Google-driven Uber car service and questioning how it relates to the record sales of a fairly expensive car. The answer is that the speed of the technology wave is very slow at first, and then it will surge. Just as the wave was forming, imagine that the beacher built the best and most beautiful sandcastle ever, and didn't realize what was going to happen.
When the car was first unveiled in the early 20th century, the number of horses continued to grow over the years until it reached a peak of 25 million in 1920. Today, there are only 4 million horses left in the United States, a 85% reduction (by the way, the number of American cars and trucks exceeds 250 million).
By 2030, for a house painter or personal trainer, a vehicle that follows their actions and carries the equipment they need may be essential, just like today's cars are for us. However, within a decade, many of us may feel that the importance of owning a car may be similar to having a horse.
Of course, only when the technology realizes the reality in the promise, we will go to that step: the automatic driving of the vehicle is better than the manual driving, and the cost per mile is lower than the price we pay for personal travel.
In addition to these, we must also enjoy a convenience, which we expect from personal transportation: in general, our car is parked in the garage or driveway, and it is also not on the street outside the door. When we want to go out, the car is generally ready, almost instantaneously.
Looking at these factors, we can portray a future in which vehicles will quickly give way to on-demand vehicles.
First, consider security. Google's self-driving cars have been extensively tested in the real world environment, and the company publishes reports every month to publicize their troubles. These cars don't hit anything. With their large-scale sensor arrays and cautious driving algorithms, the accidents that Google's self-driving cars often encounter are usually rear-end collisions because those who think it will drive faster. This fact is important and should not be overlooked, because Google’s auto-driving car has twice the frequency of accidents.
However, don't be misled by them, those are minor accidents, and continuous improvement of vehicle behavior should be able to avoid many such accidents (don't worry, if the street is full of robots, such an accident will not occur). Rest assured, before the safety of Google's self-driving cars is significantly better than that of human drivers - Musk believes that this is close at hand - they will not be put into public use.
Second, there are cost issues. Those new cars that sell for $33,500 are not a hammer sale. Instead, we'd better think about how much the car will cost over time. According to data from the trading platform Edmunds, the five-year depreciation rate for cars is generally 63% (equivalent to $4,221 per year).
The average annual mileage of a car is 13,476 miles, and the average fuel consumption is 25.5 miles per gallon (that is, 528 gallons per year), let us generously position the price of oil at $2 per gallon, which is $1,056. The average annual insurance cost for a car is $900—yes, many people pay more than that. You will see that the car costs more than $6,000 a year, and we haven't counted the cost of maintenance, registration or parking.
According to an annual survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average annual cost of a car is $8,700 without considering parking costs. This survey was conducted before the oil price fell, and the annual average of the car is assumed. The mileage is 15,000 miles.
With this in mind, think about another situation: you take a taxi at all times and never drive yourself. Then, only if the cost per mile is 50 cents, this way of travel can compete with the car you own.
What if you don’t own a car with half the cost of owning a car?
A study conducted by financial research firm ARK Invest earlier this year came to the conclusion that the cost per mile of a Uber self-driving car would be only 25 cents. Therefore, if we assume that the revolution in autonomous vehicles will only occur after security is guaranteed, then it seems that we can conclude that its cost is feasible.
Third, it is a matter of convenience.
When I was writing this article on the outskirts of the rainy night, Uber had let me wait for 7 minutes. If it's my own car, I can drive it out of the street in about 7 seconds. However, the total amount of cars that Uber can configure is relatively small.
In April of this year, the company announced that in the San Francisco Bay Area where I live, the number of Uber drivers has reached 20,000. Although this number must have become more and more now, these drivers are not always on the road.
In a Medium blog post in November, Uber Advisor David Plouffe proudly pointed out that Uber drivers are not spending a lot of time on the road: "On average, within the United States. Half of drivers drive less than 10 hours a week, and more than 40% drive less than 8 hours a week."
Therefore, even though the number of Uber drivers has increased significantly since April, we have reason to conclude that there are rarely more than 10,000 Uber cars on any given time. For Google and other potential competitors, this represents an exciting and worrying possibility. Entering this market and providing a Uber-style service is basically to get 10,000 cars on the road during peak hours, at a cost of about $350 million.
However, once such services are established, the number of users who wish to use it to waive their own car needs will grow exponentially. This is especially true when you consider another aspect of the convenience equation: you no longer have to look for a parking space, and you don't have to pay for parking. You can get off the train directly in front of your destination and never have to find your car from a bunch of grey and white vehicles in a black-painted parking lot.
In short, it is not difficult to imagine that in a big city with a robotic taxi, anyone within a 30-mile radius of the city can call the car within 2-3 minutes at any time of the day, especially considering many city dwellers. This experience has been achieved through the services of Lyft and Uber. However, we need a lot of robotic taxis to provide this service everywhere. Ideally, those vehicles will belong to relatively few companies so that they can be widely distributed everywhere (this is less important in urban areas, but important in the suburbs, where tens of millions of Americans live, each garage Can accommodate multiple cars). The cost of achieving that future will not be cheap, and it will be very difficult.
This brings us back to Alphabet/Google and Ford. On the one hand, Google has more than $70 billion in cash, and its self-driving cars can pick up and drop passengers at a price of 25 cents per mile. On the other hand, Ford knows that the future automakers are best to supply vehicles for these markets, because the core business of the car – selling the products to consumers who drive themselves – may not last long.
Tesla is talking about the technology, and Apple is rumored to be developing its own self-driving cars, all of which point to the huge opportunities. In the United States alone, the total mileage of vehicles per year exceeds 3 trillion miles. If autonomous cars or Uber services end up with a two-thirds share, it’s a $500 billion market – close to the global business of companies like Apple, Google, General Motors (GM) and Ford. Revenue.
The significance of robotic cars is staggering, not only because companies have made heavy bets, but because the nature of these cars may one day play an important role in saving us trillions of dollars.

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