PVC market ahead of time "into the winter" The amount of delivery did not see the price has a downward trend

After the PVC market had passed a relatively stable August, the market began to decline in September. At present, the prices of calcium carbide method in East China and South China are all between 6500 and 6700 yuan (t price, the same below). To 7000 yuan or so. In this wave of market, the price of PVC from the calcium carbide method dropped from the highest 7,500 yuan to 6,500 yuan, a decrease of 1,000 yuan, but the volume still does not see amplification, the price has a downward trend. The PVC market has slipped into the winter ahead of schedule.
The main factors that analyze the fluctuation of PVC market and the price fall are:
The first is the gradual increase in supply. From January to August, the domestic PVC production was about 4.1 million tons, which was a 24.9% year-on-year increase. With the turning of the weather, the operating rate of calcium carbide production enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of ethylene manufacturers has also increased from the previous period, so the output has increased. At the same time, a batch of newly built and expanded operations such as the 100,000 tons project in Shandong Haihua and the 60,000-ton expansion project in Nanning Chemical also increased the supply of PVC in China. Therefore, the domestic PVC production this year is expected to exceed 6.5 million tons. Based more fully. In addition, the follow-up new devices will also be put into operation one after another. The increase in output will make the contradiction of oversupply more obvious, and of course it will be difficult to support prices.
Second, the downstream demand is bad. According to past practice, September and October should be the traditional peak season for PVC demand, but this year's peak season is more obvious features, so the original September demand for the PVC market depends on the downstream demand has also become a bubble. On the contrary, the downstream construction is generally in progress. Until the end of September, the operating rate of downstream hard products is still not high. Downstream this year due to the combined effects of macro-control and other factors, the demand for PVC has failed to meet expectations. Therefore, the partial increase in production capacity has encountered certain difficulties. This is directly reflected in the price. As the weather turned cold, demand in the northern region began to shrink, so the quantity of goods from the north to the south began to increase, adding to the pressure on the southern PVC market.
Third, the supply of raw material calcium carbide has eased. In August, due to the national environmental protection inspection and the increase in the price of electricity in the Northwest, the price of calcium carbide climbed upwards. At the same time, due to the suspension of production of small enterprises, supply became tense. However, with the end of environmental protection inspections and rising prices, the operating rate of calcium carbide enterprises has increased, and supply has begun to ease. Prices have dropped by 50 to 100 yuan and are still declining. At present, calcium carbide has not become a major factor affecting the production of PVC. Although the price of crude oil has been affected by various factors and has been oscillating at a high level, the impact on the PVC market, which is dominated by the calcium carbide process, has gradually decreased.
Overall, the main factor of this wave of decline is that the balance between supply and demand has been destroyed, and the oversupply situation has caused the market price of PVC to drop sharply. The market is still under the influence of a variety of bearish factors, and the contradiction of oversupply is difficult to change in a short period of time. Downstream construction is generally low, and the situation of low demand is also difficult to change in the short term; upstream low-cost shipments reduce inventory pressure and downstream buying The buying psychology will not change in the short term, so the market price may continue to fall.

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