According to the forecast of the Federation of Machinery Industry, in 2007, the machinery industry is expected to continue its steady and rapid development. The total industrial output value, industrial added value, main business income, total profit and total import and export volume will all increase by about 20% year-on-year.
The reasons for the rapid growth of the construction machinery industry in 2006 mainly include the increase in new projects started in the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006. Bank credit has grown at a rapid rate, foreign capital has flowed into the domestic property market, and the share of total social fixed assets investment in GDP remains In the first year of the â€œEleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the worldâ€™s construction machinery market continues to be optimistic and further promotes the export of domestic construction machinery.
Looking ahead to 2007, drivers such as railways, highway construction, large-scale infrastructure construction in the â€œEleventh Five-Year Planâ€ and strong growth in exports still exist, and investment in fixed assets will continue to grow steadily and rapidly. From January to April of 2007, the growth rate of the main production indicators of the machinery industry was all above 30%, and the construction machinery, general petrochemical, machine tool, mechanical basic parts and electrician production grew strongly, and the growth rate was higher than that of the whole industry, but the main agricultural machinery products Production continues to decline. Therefore, we believe that the growth rate of the industry in 2007 may fall slightly due to the high growth rate in 2006 and the intermittent characteristics of demand for construction machinery products, but it can still maintain rapid growth of more than 20%.
From the statistical analysis of the major enterprises of construction machinery, the sub-sectors with the largest growth in sales in 2006 include hydraulic excavators, forklifts, truck cranes, and flatroad machines; the sub-sectors that have seen the largest growth since 2007 include graders, forklifts, and truck cranes. And hydraulic excavators and so on. In the first quarter of 2007, the main business income and net profit growth of nine key listed companies in construction machinery were 42% and 111%, respectively, of which Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Changlin, Shantui and Xiagong In one quarter, net profit increased by more than 50%. It can be expected that the performance of the semi-annual reports of these listed companies will remain dazzling.
As of June 15, there have been 14 key machinery companies that have gained more than 100% since 2007. Among them, four companies in the shipbuilding industry have all been on the list. Other assets have been injected into the anticipated Dongfang Electric and Dongfang Boiler, construction machinery. The industry's Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion and Shantui shares, etc., machine tool industry, Shenyang machine tools are on the list. In addition, Jingwei Textile Machinery, Shanghai Mechatronics, and Weifu Hi-tech Co., Ltd. are among the varieties with limited gains and relatively low valuations last year.
From the perspective of dynamic valuation, most companies in the machinery industry currently do not have undervalued value. Therefore, our investment rating for the industry remains neutral, and we recommend focusing on some varieties with comparative advantages, such as Shantui shares and Dongfang Electric.
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