Analysis of China's Future Energy Development Pattern Trend

Fuel tax to promote new energy With the economic development and the improvement of people’s living standards, China’s demand for oil has continued to increase. Due to scarce resources, China’s net exporter has become a net importer since 1993. The degree of foreign dependency has been increasing year by year and has now been achieved. 50%. The cost of looking for oil resources is also increasing. Moreover, China's oil use efficiency is low, the level of unit consumption is high, and waste is serious. The oil consumption per unit of GDP in China and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of motor vehicles are significantly higher than those in developed countries. With the rapid growth of motor vehicle ownership, fuel consumption has increased dramatically and fuel pollution has become increasingly serious. At present, more than 80% of carbon monoxide and more than 40% of nitrogen oxides in big cities come from vehicle exhaust emissions. In order to maintain sustainable economic and social development, there is an urgent need to curb the irrational consumption of fuel.
In fact, the introduction of fuel tax is only one step in the national energy conservation and emission reduction work. New energy is the future direction. According to chief investigator Mao Yanying, according to international practice, the fuel tax is a fiscal policy to increase the price of oil to control total consumption and improve the efficiency of energy use. It is not merely a “switch between taxes and fees”. After the first oil crisis, developed countries such as Japan and Europe started or increased the fuel tax levy. From the effect of the fuel tax levy, the collection of high fuel taxes in these countries not only reduces the national economy’s dependence on international crude oil, but also Also led the development of new energy industry. 4 trillion investment: how much can new energy be divided?
The just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference put forward the key tasks of economic work in 2009, which also mentioned the need to “organize and implement high-tech industrialization specializations such as information, biology, new materials, and new energy sources”.
According to analysis by industry insiders, affected by the policy of expanding domestic demand, new energy, as an emerging industry, has important strategic significance in replacing existing energy sources such as oil and coal, as well as in energy conservation and environmental protection, and is expected to become an industry supported by policies. For the central government's 4 trillion investment to promote stable economic growth, many industries hope to get a share of it. It is predicted that the huge investment of 4 trillion yuan will cover the construction of infrastructure such as nuclear power, wind power, hydropower, and environmental protection, and nuclear power will in turn become one of the directions in the energy sector to stimulate domestic demand.
Cooperation and development in the new energy field is becoming the consensus of the international community. On December 4, the 5th Strategic Economic Dialogue between China and the United States reached 5 concrete results on energy and environmental cooperation.
Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that strengthening Sino-US energy and environmental cooperation is an important part of this dialogue. At the special meeting held in the afternoon of the same day, the leaders of the two countries and heads of relevant departments reviewed the positive progress made since the signing of the Energy and Environment Decade Cooperation Framework Document in June this year, and reached the following five agreements on strengthening energy and environmental cooperation. The concrete results achieved the preparation of the start-up action plan in the five fields of power, clean water, clean traffic, clean air, forest and wetland protection.
At the highest-level economic strategy dialogue between China and the United States, the results achieved are not related to the issue of the renminbi, but to the cooperation in the new energy field. This shows that both China and the United States attach great importance to the new energy field. In this regard, the Gold Certified Consultant believes that under the backdrop of the global financial crisis, soaring oil prices and the recession of the real economy, the two major economic powers in the United States and China have reached long-term cooperation intentions in the development of new energy, and will not only transform the energy industry. It will have a significant promotion effect and will also lay a new foundation for global new energy development and will have a positive impact on China's economic restructuring.
Policy support: The trend of new energy As a new industry, the development of new energy is inseparable from the promotion of policies. Judging from the current situation, various countries have announced a series of measures in succession.
Taking the most economically developed United States as an example, President Barack Obama, who is about to take office one month later, has set detailed targets for such policies as ethanol fuel, hybrid vehicles and new energy. Among them, it is worth noting that the quota for renewable energy power generation is limited to 10% in 2013 and 25% in 2025, which means that the United States is the world's largest new energy market. According to industry sources, although Obama’s economic stimulus plan for infrastructure is not yet clear, the idea of ​​relying on new energy to attract investment and create jobs, and the “new energy economy” that has led the US economy out of the recession, is very clear.
Other countries have given sufficient attention to new energy strategies. The overall goal of the French government is to increase the proportion of French renewable energy consumption to over 23% by 2020. The Japanese government issued the "Solar Power Generation Universal Action Plan." The Finnish government plans to substantially increase the proportion of renewable energy in 2020, and plans to roughly increase the proportion of renewable energy in the country's energy consumption from the current 29% to 38% by 2020. The U.S. report pointed out that new energy will become an important part of the energy system and it is expected that by 2025, solar energy, wind energy and other renewable energy technologies will replace oil as an important part of the human energy system. It can be seen that a new round of new energy sources is being launched globally.
Specific to China, China put new energy in an important position in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, and formulated a series of policies to encourage production and consumption of renewable energy so that the proportion of its total primary energy production from the end of 2006 was 7%. , increase to 10% in 2010, and then to 16% in 2020, increase by 9 percentage points in 14 years. Judging from the development plan for various types of new energy sources, there will be more room for development in the next 10 to 15 years.
Former Academician Yan Luguang, former director of the Institute of Electrical Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said on December 1 that reducing the share of coal and increasing the share of non-hydro renewable energy and nuclear energy will be the major development direction of China's future energy structure adjustment, while renewable energy sources Sustained stability, large-scale and high-speed development must rely on strong scientific and technological development and policy measures. It is necessary to set up major national special projects to plan and deploy and promote its rapid and efficient development.
In the aspect of China's long-term energy composition, academician Yan Luguang believes that the share of coal in the country's total energy consumption will be reduced from 70% in 2005 to 40% by 2050, oil will account for about 20%, natural gas will account for about 10%, and hydropower will account for about 6%. Nuclear power accounts for about 9%, and the remaining 15% will come from non-water renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and biomass.
Academician Yan Luguang conceived of the energy sustainable development system in the first half of the 21st century in China as follows: First, continue to play an important role in coal; Second, open source and throttling, guarantee the supply of oil and natural gas; Third, fully develop hydropower and nuclear power; Fourth, large-scale development Non-hydro renewable energy and the fifth is to strongly support the research and development of new energy sources in the future.
How cruel the photovoltaic power generation industry market under the financial crisis is, and policy support alone is not enough. Taking the photovoltaic industry, one of the most dynamic areas in the new energy sector, as an example, in order to realize the sustainable development of energy and the environment, all countries in the world have taken photovoltaic power generation as the focus of development, and the photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. In the past ten years, the annual compound annual growth rate of global solar cell additions and cumulative installed capacity was as high as 27.60% and 33.40%, respectively.
In the long run, solar photovoltaic power generation will occupy an important seat in the world's energy consumption in the near future. It will not only replace part of conventional energy sources, but will also become the main body of energy supply in the world. According to the forecast of the European JRC, by 2030, renewable energy will account for more than 30% of the total energy structure, and solar photovoltaic power generation will reach over 10% of the world's total electricity supply; renewable energies will account for over 50% of total energy consumption in 2040. Solar photovoltaic power generation will account for more than 20% of the total power; by the end of the 21st century, renewable energy will account for more than 80% of the energy structure, and solar power accounts for more than 60%, showing an extremely important strategic position.
But it is such a new energy industry that people all over the world are optimistic about, is suffering from the financial crisis. China's photovoltaic power generation industry is an emerging industry with rapid development in recent years, but due to its long list of raw materials, markets, and equipment, it has become a hard-hit area for this crisis.
The spot price of polysilicon, the main raw material for photovoltaic cell production, has fallen by 25% in the last two months, and the price of silicon wafers has also dropped by about 20%, and prices have continued to fall.
Affected by this round of global financial crisis, it is expected that the photovoltaic market will face downward pressure on demand growth and price downwards in the short term. Under the problem of overcapacity, the competition between photovoltaic companies is more reflected in improving the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells and reducing production costs to ensure reasonable profitability. Photovoltaic leading enterprises will benefit from the advantages of technology and scale, and will eventually benefit from the market elimination and baptism of this round of severe winter.
In the past two years, as the price of silicon materials has been rising all the way, prices have deviated severely from production costs, resulting in photovoltaic power generation prices containing about 50% of bubbles, and the entire industry chain cannot be coordinated and balanced. As the price of raw materials such as polysilicon decreases, the cost gap between photovoltaic generation and traditional energy generation is further narrowing. At present, the cost of photovoltaic power generation can be controlled at around RMB 3 per degree, while the cost of traditional energy generation is still around RMB 0.4 per degree. If the squeeze foam is adjusted through price adjustment, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will be similar to that of traditional energy, which will further accelerate the popularization and promotion of photovoltaic products and accelerate the large-scale start-up of the domestic photovoltaic market.
“The growth rate of the global photovoltaic power generation market will drop sharply in 2009, and it will turn into a market bubble formed this year. It is not impossible for the whole industry to reshuffle the cards.” Recently, at the “3rd China International New Energy International Summit Forum”, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, also elaborated the impact of the financial crisis on the development of renewable energy.
Li Junfeng believes that the main aspects of concern are: First, financing difficulties, among which photovoltaic power generation companies may suffer the greatest impact from the financial crisis. With the sharp decline in the valuation of new energy, IPOs or additional funds to raise funds have become very difficult. Second, the uncertainty in the international photovoltaic cell market demand will affect the rapid expansion plan for large-scale enterprises. The growth of small and medium-sized enterprises has made it particularly difficult to intensify price competition.
It is gratifying that countries’ policies to support renewable energy sources have not been substantially adjusted. For instance, the US Congress extended the subsidy policy for renewable energy power generation, the EU’s renewable energy development goals were approved by their respective governments, and Japan’s recovery was suspended for two years. The subsidy policy for photovoltaic power generation, the Chinese government further regulated the on-grid electricity price for renewable energy generation, and planned 6 million-kilowatt wind power bases. At the same time, China is preparing to launch concession bidding for large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power generation projects. Overall, renewable energy sources The policy environment for development has been improved.
Overall, the positive factors faced by China's renewable energy development include lower interest rates, lower raw material prices, increased investment in wind power, policy promotion, climate change, and energy security. At the same time, it faces changes in demand, how long the credit crisis lasts, and the decline in oil prices. The degree of uncertainty, the level of long-term credit interest rates, and the expected level of return on investment.
The three parties of CNOOC joined hands to test 800 million euros for wind power. In the crisis, there are also opportunities for development. Earlier this month, the management of the private company China Wind Power Group Co., Ltd. said that the financial crisis made it more difficult for the group to raise funds for the construction of wind power plants. It plans to slow down its expansion plan for the next fiscal year. In contrast, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Hydro and the Dutch company Reconcerc, the renewable energy company, will jointly invest 863 million euros in the construction of four large wind farms in China up to 72 million kilowatts.
As a representative of private companies participating in the operation of wind farms in China, China Wind Power Co., Ltd. plans to contract about 50% of the investment in wind farms in the next year and a half. This reflects the difficulty of raising the financing leverage ratio of wind farm investment under the financial crisis. However, under the long-term trend of China’s government to develop new energy sources such as wind power, nuclear power, and photovoltaic power generation to adjust energy structure and cope with energy security, the participation of large-scale state-owned enterprises with strong strength has continued unabated. The CNOOC and China Hydropower announced 2009 The beginning of the construction of a 720,000-kilowatt wind farm will also indicate that the wind power market in China will be worthy of appreciation in the coming years.
It is expected that in the next few years, domestic leading wind power companies will adopt vertical development, horizontal mergers and acquisitions, and overseas expansion to further consolidate their leading position in the market. The growth experiences of international wind giants such as Suzlon and Gamesa have shown that mergers and acquisitions strategies such as vertical integration of upstream component companies, horizontal M&A-related companies to intervene in and expand wind power business, and expansion of overseas wind power to emerging wind power regions have helped companies in the fierce market competition. Big and powerful effective strategy. At present, China's wind power has entered a period of "everything is over", and it is expected that companies adopting the above development strategies are expected to win the pilot.
Nuclear fusion: 250 billion domestic investment opportunities World nuclear power construction has begun to recover. According to forecasts of international research institutions, by 2030, the global nuclear power generation will double. The US Department of Energy announced in 2007 that the United States will build 32 nuclear power plants in the next two years; Russia plans to build 40 nuclear power plants by 2020; the United Kingdom decided to resume construction of nuclear power plants in January 2008; India plans to make nuclear power by 2020. The installed capacity reaches 40 million KW. It is estimated that by 2030, the total investment in nuclear power plant construction in the world will be more than 200 billion US dollars.
Nuclear power is a clean and efficient energy source. Theoretically, the fission energy released by the complete fission of 1 kilogram of uranium is equivalent to approximately 2,500 tons of coal or 2,000 tons of oil released when the oil is burned. A million kilowatts of thermal power plants require 2.6 million tons of coal, while nuclear power plants require only 30 tons of uranium raw materials. The annual carbon dioxide generated by a nuclear power plant is only 1.6% of the emissions of coal-fired power plants of the same size. Nuclear power plants do not emit sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and soot.
At present, nearly 90% of the world's primary energy consumption depends on three major fossil energy sources: oil, natural gas, and coal. About 70% of China's primary energy supply depends on coal that pollutes the environment. The energy structure needs adjustment and optimization.
How to seek new energy that can be gradually replaced in the rising trend of traditional energy prices is already a strategic task for major energy consumers. With abundant resources and low environmental pollution, nuclear power has become a hot spot for investment in the international energy sector. High-efficiency, clean nuclear energy will play an increasingly important role in the energy landscape.
From the Nuclear Power Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan (2005-2020) recently approved by the State Council, we can see that the country’s strategy for the development of nuclear power ranges from “moderately developed” to “actively developing”. Under such a background, China’s nuclear power will receive energy. Good development opportunities.
According to the plan, by 2020, the proportion of nuclear power in the total installed capacity of electric power will increase from less than 2% to 4%, and the annual generation of nuclear power will reach 260 to 280 billion kWh. From 2005 to 2010, China’s nuclear power installed capacity The compound annual growth rate reached 11.9%; from 2010 to 2020, the annual compound growth rate of installed capacity reached 12.8%. At present, the overall localization rate of nuclear power plants in China is about 50% to 60%, and the recent goal is to increase to 70%. The 4th Five-Year Plan localization rate is greater than 80%.
Therefore, the nuclear power industry has a huge market. The National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly stated that by 2020, the installed capacity of nuclear power can reach 60 million KW, which is higher than the original estimated 40 million KW. Based on this estimate, by 2020, the total investment in China’s nuclear power construction will reach approximately 750 billion yuan, including equipment. The investment is about RMB340 billion. If the localization rate of equipment nuclear islands reaches 70%, the localization rate of conventional islands is 80%, and the localization rate of auxiliary equipment is 90%, the domestic equipment companies will face at least over 250 billion yuan of market.

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